This is a familiar map in the spring time. It's the daily Storm Prediction Center's severe weather outlook for today. There are three different colors on the map and they each have different meanings. The very light green to the west shows a small opportunity for some thunderstorms. The darker green is the marginal risk, or lowest risk of severe storms. That is less than 15% for any location. The yellow areas are the light risk locations. That means there is a 15% probability of a severe thunderstorms for a given location in the highlighted area. This is the most common risk during the severe season.
The slight risk category is when I start to pay attention to the weather setup and conditions in the highlighted area. The locations will see thunderstorms later this afternoon. The environment is conducive for large hail over half-dollar size and strong wind to 70 mph. Both of which can cause major damage to your home, farm, ranch, or vehicle. That's why we are paying attention to what happens in the yellow counties.
I know that slight risk does not sound like much. But, we have seen many severe storms and a few tornadoes when there has been a slight risk issues. Now, every event is different. There is a less than 2% chance of a tornado today, which is basically nil. The dry line is going to move east ans pass Lubbock just after lunch time. This will keep the eastern counties with moisture, lift and wind that turns clockwise with height. Those are going to be stronger today and are all needed for severe storms.
The bottom picture is a computer forecast for 7:00 pm. It is already showing the dry line east of the area, with thunderstorms ongoing in the far eastern counties. The best location for hail producing storms will be near Briscoe, Hall, Motley, Cottle, Dickens and King Counties. These counties may see very large, damaging hail and very strong wind.
Any thunderstorms will clear the area between 8:00-9:00 pm. But I can't rule out a shower, or storm over night as the dry line comes back to the west. We'll get scattered thunderstorms tomorrow, but the western counties will stay dry, warm and windy. The central and eastern counties will see the scattered storms.
