I think the title to this blog post is absolutely perfect. Uncertainty. That has been the forecast pretty much since we have moved into the month of May. The dry line became active very quickly. That has been the focal point for showers and thunderstorms over the last week. In spring across west Texas, that dry line divides the moist air to the east and dry air to the west. It also creates lift, which is needed to initiate thunderstorms. That dry line has moved back to the west this morning, typical in the morning hours. It will not move too far east this afternoon. That means showers and thunderstorms will get going, likely after 5:00 pm.
The severe thunderstorm threat is not going to be as high this afternoon as it was Monday. Thunderstorms will begin between 4:00-5:00 pm and spread east pretty quickly. By sunset, the storms are going to be out of the area to the east and northeast. Any storm that forms will can produce wind gusts to 70 mph. That wind will cause damage homes, farm equipment and vehicles. So, these can become dangerous. The hail threat is low today, but certainly can not be ruled out. I am not anticipating numerous severe thunderstorm warnings like we had on Monday.
The rest of the week is really going to define uncertainty. We'll get warmer air returning to the region Thursday and Friday. Wind is also going to be increasing to 15-20 mph by the end of the week and into the weekend. We'll get another disturbance coming into west Texas this weekend. This will provide some moisture and lift. Moisture and lift will be needed to create showers and thunderstorms. It will not be as strong as the areas that saw storms this week. However, I can't rule out isolated thunderstorms Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Most will stay dry, but you should have your umbrellas in your car, especially on Sunday afternoon.
So, that is why I am talking about uncertainty. Today is really the last day to see showers and storms for multiple locations at least through early next week. Thankfully we are not going to see widespread triple digit heat over the next seven days. The eastern counties will see a few spots at 100°, or so, by Thursday and Friday. It looks as though La Nina is finally breaking down enough to get some rain in our area. Let's hope that continues through May and into June.