We're up and running in the summer season at this point and it always seems that, this time of year, it's hard to find good news on a daily basis, in terms of the weather forecast. I have been forecasting the weather in west Texas for 10 years now and I find that this time of year is the hardest to talk about on air. Now, this year is extra difficult thanks to La Nina. La Nina is the cooling of water in the eastern Pacific Ocean, which causes warmer and dry air across the southern United States. La Nina may be extremely weak now, but its effects are still felt. The phenomena usually peaks around Christmas, or into January. That's the reason for, what I've heard people say, no winter. It's also the cause for the hot and dry weather this calendar year.
The above pictures are the 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook, valid for July 4-10. It's still showing high temperatures 50% above average. What the translates to is more high temperatures in the upper 90s and triple digits for most of us in west Texas. It's showing neutral precipitation, which means we won't see above, or below average chances at rain. We would really need to see the green colors of at least 40% above average for some relief. It's looking like we'll continue to see more hot air and dry weather, hurting us through the early and middle part of July.
This weekend will see high pressure moving off to the east. There will be monsoonal moisture flowing into Arizona, New Mexico and west Texas. The best locations to actually see some rain on Saturday night and into Sunday will be just west of our area. We're now only looking at 10% for some storms in the area during the day Sunday. We'll also see some isolated storms Saturday night and Sunday night. It's not the best, but at least some spots will get some helpful rain on Sunday. We won't see high amounts, but it's always great to see some rain this time of year, because we desperately need it.
We're all hoping that El Nino returns this Autumn and into winter. That would help to bring in more moisture, which translates to rain and snow for the winter, with a wet spring. There is a shot of El Nino coming back, so this would really help us out as we move into 2019. Hopefully then I will have really great news in the forecast each day!