The latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center was issued at 8:00 am. It now includes Lubbock in the Enhanced Risk for severe storms tonight. That means that there is a one-in-three shot at seeing a severe storm within 25 miles of a location. Now, the worst of the severe weather is going to be in southern New Mexico and Far West Texas and Permian Basin. Those locations will see the potential of two inch diameter hail and some tornadoes.
We will see a few storms in the area by early afternoon. The real threat will come later tonight. A squall line is expected to form along the state line by 8:00 pm. That is going to race east and exit the area by 11:00-midnight. The squall line is expected to impact Lubbock between 9:00-10:00 tonight. We're looking at wind gusts to 80 mph with this line of storms. Although the large hail threat is small, I can't rule out some quarter size hail with this line, especially in the front of the system. A few, brief, spin-up tornadoes also can't be ruled out. So that is something to keep an eye on.
We'll also get some heavy rain, so localized flooding can't be ruled out, either. Rainfall totals by midnight are expect to be between 1-1.5" area-wide. We definitely need that much rain, just not at once. Driving will be very difficult with wind driven rain. So travel once the storms enter our area is not encouraged. Once this system passes tonight, we'll see very strong wind leftover tomorrow afternoon. The air will be dry, but wind will be sustained at 40-50 mph, with gusts reaching 70 mph at times. That could bring down tree branches and lawn decorations. So be prepared for that on Wednesday.
Should anything change, I will give more updates throughout the rest of the day.