Severe thunderstorms are still a possibility by midnight Tuesday morning. A dry line is going to be set up near the I-27 corridor Monday. Ahead of that dry line will be very moist and unstable air. There will be a few thunderstorms forming in the afternoon Monday, but the biggest threat will be into the early morning hours on Tuesday. We're also going to watch a low pressure system coming in from the coast of California. That will get into west Texas late Monday night. The low and the dry line will interact causing strong thunderstorms to form. We're looking at 2" size hail and wind gusts over 60 mph. The yellow areas in the picture above are those locations I'm talking about.
The Storm Prediction Center does have Lubbock, Plainview, Tahoka, Lamesa and areas east under a 15% risk for severe storms from midnight-4:00 am Tuesday. A 15% risk this many days in advance is a big deal. We know when we see this setup, severe storms certainly happen. That's why we can mention severe storms this many days in advance. Obviously safety is my biggest concern, especially when you talk about an overnight severe event. The focus area has shifted some since Thursday. It has moved more to the east and southeast in our region. Lubbock is still included, but we're just on the fringe. We still obviously need to keep a heads up.
Sunday morning is when we'll start to really focus on an area that has the best risk for these storms. Tuesday will be 'day three' according to the Storm Prediction Center. By that time, a Slight Risk area will be mentioned in west Texas. I know a slight risk doesn't sound like much, but that is when we start to really clamp down and prepare for severe storms. I would not be surprised if there was an Enhanced Risk of severe storms along the Red River in north Texas and southern Oklahoma by Sunday. We will see. This forecast can change, so I will be watching it over the weekend and will continue to give updates should things change.