As expected, there have been changes to the forecast over the next few days. There is actually the potential for a few severe storms later this afternoon east of Lubbock. The yellow counties, Crosby, Dickens, King and Kent Counties, have the best shot to see storms with 2" size hail and 60 mph wind. The timing is after 4:00 pm today and they are not expected to last too long at all. Just keep an eye out if you live east of Lubbock this afternoon and evening. These storms will push east and will have a better shot at seeing severe storms outside of our area to the east.
The Storm Prediction Center is also giving us a Marginal Risk for severe storms tomorrow afternoon and evening. The photo above is showing those locations that may see some large hail. The darker green areas, including Lubbock, should just keep an eye out after 5:00 pm tomorrow. The risk is low, but this time of year, we all know storms can form pretty quickly and become severe even when there is the lowest risk. This all depends on where the cold front and dry line end up during peak heating.
For Monday, the risk has shifted just a bit to the southeast of Lubbock. Lubbock itself and Lubbock County for that matter are not included in the slight risk area. I know slight risk does not sound like much, but this is when we start to prepare for severe storms. The yellow counties do have the best shot at seeing large hail and 60 mph wind Monday evening into the overnight hours. I have been watching this all week and as expected, we're getting closer to the event which means we can narrow down the areas that have the best chance of severe storms. This could still change, so I will keep you posted on any changes that may occur.
Now the obvious biggest change is the outlook for Tuesday. The Storm Prediction Center is now giving the most attention to areas from Wichita Falls, to Abilene, to Dallas, to southern Oklahoma for severe storms. Now, our area still has a portion under the 15% chance for severe storms. Much like the slight risk area, that does not sound like much. However, 15% risk three-to-four days out is still pretty high. Lubbock is now not included in this risk. However, counties just to the southeast are. The timing is still looking like midnight-4:00 am Tuesday. This outlook will change by tomorrow and Monday. It is heavily dependent on what the dry line ends up doing. That means we may be more in the clear, or the 15% area could move back farther west. Obviously when things change, I will keep you posted.