Here we are with another day talking about severe storms for portions of the area. Okay, most of the area. This is trying to turn into the severe weather season of 2016; the one that would not end. Now, for the most part, we're talking about wind gusts to 70 mph possible. Some storms will have the potential for quarter size hail, but that threat will mainly be in New Mexico. The yellow areas have the greatest severe threat tonight. That does include Lubbock.
The timing on this situation is going to be very similar to what we had on Saturday night and last night. Thunderstorms will form this afternoon/evening in New Mexico, then spread off to the east. The strongest storms will be in New Mexico. However, I wouldn't be surprised for a few severe thunderstorm warnings in our area; generally for 70 mph wind gusts. These wind gusts will have the potential to knock down some tree branches and lawn furniture/decorations. Hail will get to quarter size with any storm. But this will not be widespread.
The picture below shows the timing for storms to begin. It is very much looking like we'll get storms along the state line by 9:00 pm. This line will move east and affect Lubbock by 10:00-midnight. Flooding is also going to be an issue because of the copious amounts of moisture we have in the air. That is just another hazard to worry about.
A potential problem with storm development, or storms becoming severe, will be the atmosphere. It has been worked over with strong storms the last two nights. This could help to keep these storms sub-severe, which is just fine. We will have to watch how the atmosphere recovers this afternoon and evening to determine storm strength. If anything, flooding will definitely be an issue to locations that see storms.
