Things really started to get busy last week with severe weather. We had storms form unexpectedly yesterday, but today's storms are expected. The yellow areas in the map above have a shot a more severe storms today. The dry line is going to be active this afternoon and that will be the driver for these storms. Lubbock hit 100° yesterday, but it will not be as hot today. In fact, the high is only forecast to reach 86°. For severe storms to form, you need many ingredients, which we will have. However, one of those ingredients is the convective temperature. You need the air to be very warm and unstable, in other words. A few models are hinting that Lubbock will not reach that convective temperature today; it looks to be 91°. That is something to watch as the day progresses. Nonetheless, you need to be weather aware, especially during the evening rush hour.
The 8:00 am update from the high resolution computer forecast (photo above) has backed off on the intensity of the storms a bit. That does not necessarily mean that will 100% happen today, as this is just a computer model. The setup will call for storms to begin forming around 3:00-4:00 pm near, or just west of Lubbock. The storms will quickly form a line, which will push east around 40 mph, or so. That line will push through Lubbock between 4:00-7:00 pm and exit our eastern counties by 9:00 pm. Once the line gets off the Caprock, hail will not be as much of a threat. Heavy rain and 70 mph wind gusts will be at that point.
Today's severe storm impacts will generally be wind gusts to 70 mph wind, ping pong ball, to golf ball size hail (1.5", to 1.75" in diameter) and very heavy rain causing street flooding. Take rain gear with you if you will be headed out this evening, or coming home from work. The storms could very well affect the evening rush for Lubbock, as well as I-27 and U.S. 87. You'll need to drive slower, watch for other vehicles and pack your patience. If anything changes throughout the day, I will post updates here. Thanks for reading and stay weather aware today.