First of all, happy Mother's Day to all the moms out there. I hope you have a wonderful day. There is an opportunity to see scattered severe storms this afternoon and evening in portions of central and northeast Texas. The highest probability is going to be in the orange color of that photo above. Thankfully, the overall tornado threat today is low. However, it is non-zero, especially in the orange areas. Those who live in the orange and yellow areas need to be ready for some storms with 1-2" diameter hail and 60-70 mph wind gusts. As we'll see below, the timing for storm development is going to be from 2:00-8:00 pm.
The three photos above are three different computer forecast models for this afternoon/evening. All three are showing a line of storms forming and moving to the south/southeast. Overall coverage of storms today looks to be low. However, those in the path of these storms should really keep an eye on the weather. I know many of you are going out to dinner for Mother's Day. Please be sure to have a way to receive warnings when you are away from home. The high resolution forecast (bottom) is showing two areas of storm development. One closer to Austin/San Antonio and the other in east and northeast Texas.
The bottom line is any storm that forms this afternoon has the potential to quickly become severe. So please be weather aware. Move your cars inside and just be smart if you'll be out and about. I just can't stress that enough. This is a busy time of the year and we all need to be ready for many more opportunities to see bad storms this month.
As of Sunday, there is a small area of potential severe weather to be concerned about on Monday from Schleicher and Sutton Counties, south and southeast, including San Antonio. However, the darker green areas in the left photo above still could see an isolated severe storm on Monday. Tuesday is looking a lot less likely, as of now, for widespread severe storms. But those in the dark green have the potential for quarter size hail and 60 mph wind. The Tuesday outlook will change tomorrow and obviously on Tuesday morning. So be sure to pay attention to my website, as well as Nick Kraynok Weather on Facebook and @Nick_Weather on Twitter for the latest weather information as we move through the next few days. My social media pages will alert you when there are watches and warning issued. Thank you for reading and stay safe!
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