It seems as though West Texas has recently decided to wake up in terms of severe weather season. The last few weeks have been very active across the west and it seems as though that active pattern will continue this week. For today (May 26) the yellow areas in the photo above are the target areas for isolated, to scattered, severe storms. The yellow on the map indicates a slight risk for severe storms; or a category two out of five risk. This means there will be short lived, or not widespread, isolated intense storms possible. Wind gusts will reach between 60-70 mph, there will be 2-3" diameter hail possible and an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.
The computer models for today are not looking too impressive. However, that should be taken with a grain of salt, because computers are never 100% accurate. The three different forecasts above do indicate more isolated severe storms possible after 5:00 pm. Coverage is going to be low, but those that do see these storms will expect major impacts. As mentioned above, very strong wind and hail larger than tennis balls is possible. That is why you don't want to dismiss this forecast based on the computer model pictures. Be prepared for intense storms from Fort Stockton, to the panhandle/Oklahoma border. This includes Midland, Lubbock and Amarillo. The thunderstorm threat should diminish by 11:00 pm.
Much of the same areas have another threat for severe thunderstorms on Thursday, May 27 as well. The yellow areas have a risk at isolated severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening. The orange areas, near Childress and into Oklahoma, are the locations with greater coverage of severe storms is possible. The main threats tomorrow will be wind gusts between 70-80 mph, tennis to baseball size hail and a few tornadoes. The highest tornado and hail threat will be in the orange areas. However, those in the yellow areas could see that risk as well. The risk in yellow is more isolated, whereas the orange areas will see more people affected by severe storms.
It's hard, even a day out, to pinpoint where severe storms will be. The two forecast models in the photos above give us an idea as to where the focus will be for severe storms in Texas. The storms could certainly begin across West Texas in places that will see severe storms today. So the guard should not be let down in Midland, Lubbock and Amarillo. These storms are forecast to move east through the evening and after sunset hours Thursday. Childress and the eastern panhandle will see the highest risk for tennis to baseball size hail and 70-80 mph wind gusts. However, if the storms form during the afternoon farther west, we could certainly see these threats for the Lubbock and Midland areas, as well.
So be weather aware, especially across West Texas today and tomorrow. Have multiple ways to get warnings, especially if you will be outside of your house. Watches and warnings will instantly post to Nick Kraynok Weather on Facebook and @Nick_Weather on Twitter. Monitor these pages and share the watches/warnings so family and friends can stay safe and informed.
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